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Capital Market Assumptions 2013
Seeking Opportunities in a More Challenging Environment
Hunter Brackett, CFA Senior Manager | CAPTRUST Consulting Research Group
The financial literature has taught us that risk and return are related and that optimized portfolios seek to produce the highest expected return per unit of risk. But what returns are realistic to expect in a post-financial-crisis environment characterized by slower economic growth, historically low interest rates, and subdued inflation?
Formulating risk and return assumptions for the various asset classes that comprise capital markets offers investors a guide to the probable range of investment performance over a given period. These assumptions can then guide the asset allocation and risk levels that should be chosen to meet investment goals. For instance, if equities are expected to deliver higher returns in the forward period than they have in the previous period, can equity allocations be lowered without sacrificing performance?
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